RSS 2.0 FeedSeptember 2010 Vol 23, Featured Articles, National News
Experts predict "serious turmoil" if Mugabe dies in office
Analysts have predicted that Zimbabwe would be thrown into serious political turmoil in the event President Robert Mugabe dies in office.
In recent weeks news of Mugabe’s allegedly failing health has dominated many newspaper columns around the world because recent pictures of Mugabe showed him walking unsteadily and requiring the assistance of aides to negotiate stairs. But the 86 year-old ZANU PF leader’s health has been a closely guarded secret for decades.
Notwithstanding his advanced age and ‘deteriorating’ health Mugabe, nevertheless appears determined to seek re-election in the next poll, once the redrafting of a new constitution is complete next year.
Academic and political researcher Clifford Mashiri told us this scenario increases the chances that he might die in office, or due to old age will become incapable of performing the duties of his office, by reason of mental or physical incapacity.
‘There is a danger that if he (Mugabe) dies while still in power, there are chances the country will be left in disarray as factions in ZANU PF fight to gain control of power. What is clear after 30 years of Mugabe at the helm of ZANU PF is that the party is incapable of resolving the succession issue,’ Mashiri said.
He added; ‘The possibility of a military coup cannot be ruled out but it is less likely if a person from ZANU PF takes over through an act of Parliament. It would be a different case if someone not from ZANU PF takes over or if there is a mass rising against anyone from ZANU PF taking over.’
Mashiri said people should always look at the powerful generals as ‘dirty rich soldiers’ who will do anything to protect their wealth, and the situation can only get worse if ZANU PF loyalists in the military split over their choice of leader.
Derek Matyszak has written a paper for the Research and Advocacy Unit (RAU) titled ‘Drop dead beautiful? Legal notes on death and the President.’ It looks at the legal position and what ought to happen in terms of the current constitution if Mugabe were to die today.
He writes that Section 29 of the Constitution provides that if the president becomes incapable of performing his duties, he will cease to hold office if a joint committee of the Senate and House of Assembly formed at the request of a two thirds majority of Parliament recommends this.
Another analyst said by law, this was the only plausible way of replacing Mugabe democratically if he fails to complete his presidential term but doubted this would happen under a military that supports ZANU PF.
‘As long as you have these generals who rose through ZANLA ranks forget about power transfer when there are no security sector reforms in Zimbabwe. Look back at a series of recent events where power transfer was impossible even when it was clear Mugabe and ZANU PF lost the elections,’ the analyst said.
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