HARARE -- Southern African leaders have urged the West to lift sanctions on Zimbabwe, angering Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai while emboldening President Robert Mugabe who is likely to frustrate key reforms but analysts say the fragile coalition will hold and regional leaders anxious of a failed neighbour will eventually rein in the veteran leader.

The Movement for Democratic Change had hoped, maybe naively, that the Southern African Development Community (SADC) would censure Mugabe, 85, for breaching provisions of a global political agreement signed a year ago or call for an extra-ordinary summit to resolve the issues.

Mugabe’s ZANU-PF had before the summit argued that sanctions imposed by the West were the biggest threat to the survival of the unity government and it would seem that position prevailed at the SADC meeting.

Mugabe has returned home emboldened and vindicated, for now, and is likely to wave the communiqué by regional leaders to stall many of the reforms agreed last year in September, including writing a new constitution.

“But Mugabe will soon realise that the victory, if you can call it that, is very short lived,” said John Makumbe, a university of Zimbabwe lecturer and ardent Mugabe critic.

“The MDC demands are within the provisions of the global political agreement and are enforceable while the issue of sanctions involves non SADC members, sovereign states who will not be moved by SADC. So yes Mugabe maybe gaining the upper hand now but that is as good as it gets.”   

The United States and European Union have kept a travel ban and asset freeze on Mugabe and senior ZANU-PF members and continue to withhold badly needed aid needed by Zimbabwe, a move he says is meant to divide the unity government.

Going to the two-day summit in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Tsvangirai had called upon regional leaders to put pressure on Mugabe to fully implement the power-sharing agreement, accusing the long time leader of refusing to reverse a series of key political appointments.

The MDC wants the appointment of Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe Governor Gideon Gono and Attorney General Johannes Tomana reversed, the immediate appointment of deputy agriculture minister-designate Roy Bennett and five MDC provincial governors.

Gono is blamed for running down the economy by printing money and financing a violence run-off campaign last year that returned Mugabe to power after a first round defeat while Tomana stands accused of selectively prosecuting MDC members and supporters.

Tsvangirai said the SADC Troika, comprising Angola, Mozambique and Swaziland and South Africa which is mediator remained seized with the Zimbabwe issue.

Analysts say while SADC’s position may for now have disappointed the MDC, the fact that South Africa is part of the troika was a sign that the regional leaders wanted a quick resolution to the outstanding issues.

Political analysts said the African National Congress (ANC) and Confederation of South African Trade Unions (COSATU) would ratchet pressure on South African President Jacob Zuma to carry his weight within the troika.

“It is significant that South Africa is part of the troika dealing with Zimbabwe because it is the most influential country. ANC and COSATU will pressure Zuma to resolve this and this (in the troika) is where the whole game will be played,” Eldred Masunungure, a political analyst said.

South African deputy president Kgalema Motlanthe seemed to tore the ANC line yesterday when he told parliament that an extra-ordinary summit to resolve the political standoff was still an option if the outstanding issues were not resolved.

"SADC leadership has decided that the SADC secretariat should on an ongoing basis monitor resolution to all these outstanding issues and that if that does not produce the desired results an extraordinary summit will be convened focusing specifically on ensuring that more fillip is added to the processes of moving Zimbabwe forward," Motlanthe said.

"There is really no advantage to be gained by maintaining the status quo and Zimbabweans do understand that, that in fact there will be no second chance, this is their last chance to pull themselves out of the morass they find themselves in," said Motlanthe.

A recovery in Zimbabwe's battered economy is important for South Africa because millions of Zimbabweans have been driven to seek work in their much wealthier neighbour.

The formation of an inclusive government in February has given hope of an end to political hostilities and a debilitating economic crisis but the new administration has been beset by tensions.

Mugabe and his ZANU-PF say there are no outstanding issues and, in turn, accuse the MDC of not doing enough to push western governments to lift sanctions.

Despite the tensions, the fragile coalition would hold with the support of regional leaders fearing the fallout from a failed Zimbabwe, analysts said.

“The unity government will not be going anywhere, it will survive. It will be a tug of war but a new constitution will be written and eventually elections will be held but with each day ZANU-PF is losing support on the ground,” Makumbe said.

By Zimonline