HARARE – President Jacob Zuma is losing patience over Zimbabwe’s Robert Mugabe’s refusal to fully implement terms of the 2008 political pact he signed with his rival Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai but he may struggle to rally other regional leaders to take tougher action against the octogenarian leader, analysts said.

Mugabe was last week rattled by the Southern African Development Community (SADC) troika summit in Zambia, which for the first time adopted a hard stance when it criticized the 87-year-old’s recent crackdown on opponents.

The criticism by the troika, which consists of Mozambique, South Africa and Zambia, came at a time of deteriorating relations between coalition partners Mugabe and Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai over the 87-year-old’s refusal to appoint provincial governors from Tsvangirai’s Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) and to reform the security sector.

Pretoria Shift

Tensions between the two rivals have escalated in the last month over a crackdown on the MDC, including the arrest, twice, of Energy and Power Development Minister Elton Mangoma and the banning of the former opposition’s rallies by security forces who publicly support Mugabe.

“We can say with a fair degree of certainty after events in Zambia last week that there is a clear shift in attitude in Pretoria,” an African diplomat based in Harare told ZimOnline.

“I believe the question consuming the South African leadership at the moment is ‘how can Zimbabwe have a credible and acceptable election when the parties cannot even fulfill what they agreed in the global political agreement’.”

Leaders of the SADC troika have demanded an immediate end to violence, intimidation, hate speech, harassment and want elections to be held after a referendum on a new constitution.

Mugabe responded by saying he would not brook any interference from a regional body that forced him into the coalition after disputed elections in 2008.

The official weekly government mouthpiece Sunday Mail attacked Zuma as “erratic” while questioning his role as Zimbabwe mediator and said he was now a liability to Africans.

Protocol blip

Mugabe and Tsvangirai were last week told to leave the meeting to allow the troika leaders to freely discuss Zimbabwe, something the ageing leader has resisted in the past, when he has reminded regional leaders that his position as head of state allowed him to attend such meetings.

This had particularly angered the MDC, which accused SADC leaders of treating Mugabe with kid gloves.

“The old man is very bitter with his treatment as an elderly statesman. Yes he is disappointed with the outcome of the meeting but to be treated as an equal to Tsvangirai and (deputy prime minister Arthur) Mutambara was an ultimate humiliation and you can then understand his anger,” a senior government official who attended the meeting said.

Officials from Mugabe’s camp who attended the Livingstone summit said Mugabe was further irritated when he arrived early for the summit last Thursday only to be informed that the meeting was seven hours away.

The officials said Zambian President Rupiah Banda had on Monday send an envoy to explain what the officials said was a “protocol blip” during the summit but Banda remained unapologetic on the decision taken by the troika.

Political analysts said Zuma had had enough of Mugabe’s blatant refusal to fully implement the political accord in a bid to maintain his tight grip on power and could not stomach Zimbabwe calling another election without the parties first implementing the global political agreement.

But Zuma faces a harder challenge to an already divided SADC to bring full pressure to bear on Mugabe.

Mugabe’s allies

“The biggest challenge for President Zuma is to win over Mugabe’s allies in SADC because without them he cannot rein in Mugabe in the same way Nigeria has managed to rally ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States) against Laurent Gbagbo (of Ivory Coast),” leading political commentator Eldred Masunungure said.

“So this leaves Mugabe with some room to maneuver but it is clear pressure is building  from SADC but only time will tell whether it is enough to change political events in this country.”

Mugabe, one of the oldest and longest serving leaders in Africa, still towers above other regional leaders and has the full support of Angola, Namibia and Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), which are in one camp.

Another African diplomat said Mozambique’s Guebuza wanted a dignified exit for Mugabe but preferred a ZANU-PF stalwart to succeed him while Namibia and DRC believe the veteran leader still has a role to play in regional politics.

Botswana, which has been the most vocal against Mugabe’s rule, South Africa, Tanzania and Zambia all want Mugabe to retire and sympathise with Tsvangirai, whom they see as a victim of Mugabe’s dictatorship and are not opposed to him ascending to power.

Madagascar, Mauritius, Seychelles and Swaziland are seen as political lightweight and can support any of the two main camps although they are likely to lean on South Africa for economic reasons.

Analysts said Mugabe’s attack on the regional group was political posturing, adding that he would not attempt to pull out from bloc, which has shielded him from Western countries who accuse him of human rights abuses and election rigging.

“It has to be understood that Mugabe has managed to withstand a barrage of international pressure before because SADC has absorbed most of that pressure in solidarity with one of its own,” Masunungure said.

“I have no doubt that without the insulation provided by the region, Mugabe’s powerbase would be severely diminished.” 

By Zimonline

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