JOHANNESBURG - Uncertainty over elections and the fate of constitutional reform, as well as approaches and commitments made by SADC and the global community are key to Zimbabwe’s political environment in 2011. 

The headline ‘Coup Inevitable – Idasa’ published by The Zimbabwean on 6 March was not an accurate reflection of the organisation’s thinking. We believe South Africa must engage the international community to ensure that its concerns are incorporated into any future “roadmap” and to continue on the path to normalisation. Failure to do so leaves the possibility of a coup d’etat in the event of Mugabe’s death or a Zanu (PF) defeat at the polls.

Mugabe’s dismissal of constitutional reform as a prerequisite for elections has raised serious concern. Without a new constitution, the political and electoral environments will continue to favour Zanu (PF) and any election result will therefore be questionable. Continued pressure by SADC on the three principal parties to implement an electoral “road map” has yielded few results and Zanu (PF) has indicated it is unwilling to abide by such an agreement. 

Further political stalemate and a stalled SADC mediation process could encourage Zanu (PF) to put forward a pro-Zanu (PF) draft constitution for a referendum that is likely to be rejected, in a scenario reminiscent of 2000. Elections under the current constitution would maintain an unfair and un-free electoral environment that favours Zanu (PF); there will be a strong likelihood of political violence. 

This could yield two results. It could produce a second GPA and inclusive government. Restrictive measures will be strengthened, further entrenching the security forces and resulting in intensified repression. Alternatively, Zanu (PF) could lose the election but refuse to relinquish power as it did in the Presidential Election of 2008. The military’s role would become vital in maintaining Zanu (PF)’s grip on power and quashing any form of opposition or dissent. Zimbabwean apathy will increase and another great migration will commence. The economy will once again become unstable and likely to collapse.

A synchronised and public message must be developed by the African Union (AU), SADC and the international community and should state that an electoral outcome will not be accepted if an election “road map” that seeks reform is not adopted and that reform measures must be tested on the ground. As previously seen, depending on the scale of violence and electoral fraud, member states of the AU, SADC and the international community may not reject an election that is not completely free and fair. 

The implications of, yet again, rewarding politicians who have subverted the will of the people with political office will encourage undemocratic behaviour and ultimately undermine security and stability. 

The political environment will remain fragile and highly susceptible to both internal and external forces and pressures, making it difficult to strategise. Concerted regional and international pressure on the principal parties offers the best chance to keep the parties on a path toward greater stability and democratisation; however this has not happened in the past.  What can be stated with certainty is that Zimbabwe’s current power-sharing paradigm is no longer able to carry the transition forward and is unlikely to last beyond 2011.
*The above is an extract from a report entitled “Zimbabwe: Risk Analysis and Scenario Mapping for 2011” which is available athttp://www.idasa.org/our_products/resources/output/the_world_can_make_a_difference/?pid=states_in_transition)

By Staff reporter and agencies