HARARE - A leading political scientist has forecast that Zimbabwe will remain stuck with a shared government even if it holds new polls next year as widely predicted as the current situation has not brought reforms necessary for change.

Eldred Masunungure, director of the Mass Public Opinion Institute (MPOI), says the partial reforms that have been instituted by the inclusive government have addressed little significant issues. He however concedes that it has also created new rent-seeking opportunities.

“Zimbabwe’s transition will be a painful and arduous process. It is presently in a fragile transition and the state itself is fragile but the transition is irreversible and unstoppable. But Zimbabwe itself has not been a failed state.

“The scenario we have now is likely to remain. It is characterised by contested equilibrium. It is a protracted and incremental transition.  The political transition is uncertain in both process and outcome. The dynamics of contestation for power will likely result in an imperfect election,” Masunungure said as he gave a sneak preview of what 2011 might hold for Zimbabwe.

The veteran MPOI chief is not convinced that there would be a complete recovery of the Zimbabwean situation which would normally guarantee free press, good governance, objective civilian control and robust partnership between the government and the Non Governmental Organisations (NGOs).

Instead, Masunungure says the status quo would remain where there is haggling and disputes over a raft of issues.

He predicts that the current constitution-making process will lead to a new constitution that will set the conditions in which the elections will be held, but also warns that the process is likely to bring in cosmetic reforms.

Masunungure also warns that complete media and electoral reforms under the current scenario are not likely; while at the same time there would be slow economic recovery as the economy will continue to operate sub-optimally because of constraints.

Since the consummation of the Global Political Agreement (GPA) which led to the formation of the current inclusive government, there have been lots of expectations on the three political parties in this arrangement to deliver.

The GPA, which was brokered by former South African leader Thabo Mbeki, was signed on September 15 2008 to try and end Zimbabwe’s decade long political and economic crises.

But while significant strides have been made in stabilising the economy and introducing a multi currency system to combat runaway inflation, concerns are still abound particularly in security where independent groups are calling for reforms.

The security agents are blamed for human rights violations and torture of opposition supporters in previous elections.

Despite mounting pressure to correct the image and works of the security agents, human rights defenders say there is recalcitrance by some hardline elements within the unity government.

Masunungure rules out Zimbabwe ever relapsing to the conditions of the pre-2008 elections which were characterised by economic turmoil and violence.

He, however, dismisses Zimbabwe’s quick flight from authoritarian tactics of Zanu PF which he says were steeped in a long history that dates more than a century.

“I am guardedly optimistic that the century of authoritarianism we are moving away from will erode. It dates back to 1890. There was no rupture in 1980 between the post colonial state and the settler colonial state.  

“To expect this structural authoritarianism to collapse in the short term is too ambitious. It will take more than a generation for the structural authoritarianism to dissipate,” Masunungure said.

Eldred Masunungure

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