Zimbabwe and South Africa's diplomatic relations could take a knock this week following revelations President Robert Mugabe's government plans to oppose its neighbour's bid for the African Union (AU) Commission chairperson's post.

South Africa is pushing for its Home Affairs minister Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma's candidacy at the AU summit that opens in Addis Ababa this week.

She will come up against the incumbent Jean Ping, a former Gabonese Foreign Minister, who reportedly enjoys the support of the Economic Community of Central Africa States (ECCAS) and of the Economic Community of West Africa State (ECOWAS).

Under normal circumstances, South Africa would have been guaranteed of its neighbour's support. But analysts say President Robert Mugabe is eager to hit back at his counterpart Jacob Zuma for putting pressure on him to end a decade long political crisis weighing down Zimbabwe.

A fortnight ago, Mugabe hosted Equatorial Guinea President Teodoro Obiang Nguema who is also the outgoing AU chairman where he was reportedly persuaded to back Ping. Sources said Nguema asked Mugabe to use his influence to convince other Sothern African Development Corporation (SADC) countries to back Ping.

Dlamini-Zuma will bank on support from the 15 member SADC to counter Ping's backers mainly from West and Central Africa.

Mugabe's spokesman George Charamba said although SADC was likely to support one candidate, Zimbabwe could change its stance if it felt the region's choice was "weak." He hinted that Mugabe could punish South Africa because it refused to support Zimbabwe's bid to join the UN Human Rights Commission (UNHRC) in 2009.

"In fact, South Africa decampaigned Zimbabwe, which was against the AU position because Zimbabwe's candidacy had been endorsed by the AU. Our position is that we will support Dlamini-Zuma.

"Until we discover that our candidate is not strong, which we haven't done, we will continue supporting her. If we discover that our candidate is not strong, like in the previous term when we supported Ping, we will sit down as SADC and choose which candidate to back.

"SADC always votes as a bloc."

If elected, Dlamini-Zuma would become the first female chairperson of the AU Commission.

She may also become another headache for Mugabe who so far has been treated with some measure of leniency by the AU but come under a lot of pressure to reform from neighbours.

Relations between South Africa and Zimbabwe have been frosty in recent years and deteriorated after Zuma replaced former president Thabo Mbeki as the SADC-appointed mediator in Zimbabwe's political crisis. Zuma quickly departed from Mbeki's "quiet diplomacy" by adopting a tougher stance against Mugabe.

Dlamini-Zuma's candidacy will also be a test for South Africa's maturity diplomacy as some observers feel Africa's biggest economy has not played its role on the regional level.

Retaliating

Analysts in South Africa have questioned Zuma's understanding of the continent's current mood and if the country was not punching above its weight.

Paul-Simon Handy and Stine Kjeldgaard, both of the South African Institute for Security Studies, argue that South Africa's has presented most of its African partners with a fait accompli by announcing Dlamini-Zuma's candidacy. "Its failure to consult substantially led to the perception that Pretoria had a hidden agenda and that Pretoria is trying to control the AU to boost its bid for a permanent seat at the UN Security Council," they said.

And after South Africa unsuccessfully blocked Zimbabwe's bid to be elected to the Geneva-based UNHCR,  the possibility of Mugabe retaliating cannot be ruled out.

Meanwhile, Zimbabwe has put forward its own candidates for two other AU commissioners' posts up for grabs. Names of Hesphina Rukato and Rudo Mabel Chitiga have been submitted for Commissioner-Political Affairs and Commissioner for Social Affairs respectively. -Africareport

By Special correspondent