The United Nations (UN) is said to be investigating claims that Zimbabwe has sent weapons to the Ivory Coast, a move that analysts fear is a warning sign of renewed civil war there.

The UK Sunday Times reported last month that the Zimbabwe government transferred arms to the Ivory Coast’s decade long ruler Laurent Gbagbo’s administration. The transfer was allegedly facilitated by the state-owned Zimbabwe Defence Industries (ZDI), and dispatched with Robert Mugabe’s blessing. The newspaper quoted high ranking intelligence sources who said the weapons deal was part of an arms-for-oil exchange agreement with the Gbagbo regime.

Gbagbo is facing international condemnation for refusing to hand over power to his political rival, Alassane Ouattara, despite losing elections last November. In a move that has been compared to Mugabe’s grip on power in Zimbabwe, Gbagbo has re-installed himself as the country’s President, resulting in widespread violence across the country.

The African Union (AU) is now trying to negotiate some kind of settlement to end the political crisis there, after last year publicly announcing its support for Ouattara. This support has been echoed by the West African leadership bloc, ECOWAS, and the United Nations (UN), leaving Gbagbo and his unlawful administration isolated.

Only one world ‘leader’ has shown his support for Gbagbo, and that has been Robert Mugabe. He was the first President to public congratulate Gbagbo’s election win, and last month an envoy from the Ivory Coast traveled to Zimbabwe, trying to garner more public support from Mugabe.

The allegations then that Mugabe has sent arms to his fellow despot in the Ivory Coast, have therefore come has no surprise to many observers.

Guy Lamb, a senior researcher at the Institute for Security Studies in South Africa, told SW Radio Africa on Thursday that it wouldn’t be surprising if the allegations turned out to be true. He explained that Zimbabwe already has a murky history with regards to illegal arms trading.

“Zimbabwe is under an EU arms embargo because certain government members and the ZDI have been implicated in supplying arms to rebel movements and mercenaries,” Lamb explained.

Lamb said the allegations go back as far as the early 1990s, when the ZDI was implicated in the smuggling of arms to the Revolutionary United Front rebel group in Sierra Leone and to Charles Taylor's regime in Liberia. Both countries were under a UN arms embargo at the time.

The ZDI was also implicated in supplying arms to mercenaries and rebel groups. In March 2004 a group of mercenaries led by Simon Mann, who were en route to stage a coup against the government of Equatorial Guinea, were arrested at Harare airport by the Zimbabwean authorities.

Lamb continued by saying that the implication of arms being exported to the Ivory Coast has serious implications, for both countries.

“If the claims are true, then Zimbabwe is seen as, potentially, a rogue state, because they are violating a UN arms embargo on the Ivory Coast,” Lamb said.

He added: “The big concern of course is that this is a sign of maybe the re-ignition of civil war in the Ivory Coast.”

The arms consignment was allegedly comprised of small arms, mortars and ammunition, which was mainly of Chinese origin. Last year, Mugabe was said to be behind an arms-for-diamonds deal with China’s notorious ‘Red Army’, with Chinese weapons being exchanged for rough diamonds from the controversial Chiadzwa alluvial fields. Lamb said that China’s involvement also needs to be investigated.

He added however that China, as a permanent member of the UN Security Council, could veto any resolution that would impact its operations.

“The UK and the US proposed a resolution before the Security Council for sanctions and an arms embargo to be placed on Zimbabwe. This was vetoed by China. Given the history, I think it unlikely that there will be action against Zimbabwe, without convincing evidence,” Lamb said.

By SW radio