In a 2000 meeting with Tom Macdonald, a former US ambassador to Zimbabwe, Chigwedere predicted Mugabe would eventually resort to the military in the face of waning public support, according to US diplomatic cables wired to Washington by Macdonald on 21 September 2000.

“Mugabe has become a liability for the party, and the sooner he retires the better. It would be very difficult for him to do so, however, because it is not in the African tradition for chiefs to simply step aside and become “ordinary men. Only God can retire a chief,” said Chigwedere.

A fundamental traditionalist and historian, Chigwedere, quickly fell back to his beliefs during the meeting despite his anti-Mugabe sentiment.

Chigwedere was described by Macdonald as someone who “provided an unusually frank and, in our judgment, accurate description of the current state of Zanu-PF politics.”

Chigwedere told the US diplomat that Mugabe had been misled by his circle of sycophants who could not tell him the truth even if they felt it was time for him to go.

“Mugabe has been misled by his circle of sycophants, who, as in another African tradition, only wish to please their chief and are loath to say or do anything that would upset him,” commented Macdonald.

When asked if there was anyone who could succeed Mugabe, Chigwedere said  most Zanu PF heavyweights had lost in parliamentary elections against the MDC early that year and so would not be ideal candidates.

“When asked if there is anyone who could succeed Mugabe, the deputy minister said only Finance Minister Simba Makoni would come close to filling his shoes, as Mugabe’s inner circle had been rejected by the people in the June 24-25 election,” wrote Macdonald.

This included Defence Minister Emerson Mnangagwa, the leader of a faction tussling with the other led by Vice President Joice Mujuru to succeed Mugabe.

Makoni, Chigwedere said, did not however, have a broad base of support since he belonged to the younger generation.

“Makoni, however, does not have a broad base of support since most of the younger generations have not been permitted to advance in the party.  He did not see any good prospects for young blood to filter up the party hierarchy so long as the old guard remain firmly entrenched,” added Macdonald.

Macdonald also spoke to Chigwedere about Zimbabwe Democracy Bill (ZDB) that was being tabled before the House of Representatives at that time.

Chigwedere, who Macdonald further described again as “a reliable embassy interlocutor in his earlier positions, who was characteristically frank in his discussion of Zanu-PF politics, warned of dire consequences for Zimbabwe if the US congress passes the ZDB.”

Macdonald commented: “While recognising the government’s failings since independence, and even calling Mugabe a liability, Chigwedere argued that the passage of the ZDB would only accelerate chaos in Zimbabwe.

“Chigwedere predicted that if the ZDB does pass, it will lead to an army takeover.  When asked to explain how this might happen, Chigwedere said the ZDA would accelerate Zimbabwe’s economic decline and lead to unrest that would force the army to intervene.

“Zimbabwean urbanites would not “lift a finger” to oppose the military because of the memory of the recent elections and the Matabeleland massacres of the 1980s, and Zimbabwe would be stuck with a military government for three to five years.

“There is no doubt of the government's failures since independence, Chigwedere opined, but the military, police, and war veterans would never permit a government that was not sympathetic to their cause.”

When asked what he thought about the army if Tsvangirai wins the 2002, Macdonald further commented: “Chigwedere added that the military would never support Tsvangirai as president should he come to power in some kind of popular revolution, but was vaguer when asked if the military would support a legitimately elected Tsvangirai.” 

By Staff reporter and agencies