HARARE – A road-map being pushed by regional leaders in Zimbabwe ahead of the country’s next vote may not guarantee free and fair elections unless it clearly spells out measures to punish parties that break its provisions, political analysts said.

The Southern African Development Community (SADC) troika said at a summit last month it would help Zimbabwean political rivals craft an election road-map to ensure the next general election was free from violence and disputes.

President Robert Mugabe’s ZANU-PF, Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai’s Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) and a smaller splinter MDC group are discussing a road-map that critics say is necessary to avoid past election disputes.

“Without specific and tangible consequences that would punish an unwillingness of principal parties to implement their responsibilities enumerated within a road map, the agreement will just be as untenable as the current GPA,” think-tank Institute for Democracy in Africa (IDASA) said in its latest report on Zimbabwe.

Zimbabwean elections have been marred by violence and disputes since 2000.

In 2008 ZANU-PF lost its parliamentary majority for the first time to the MDC and Tsvangirai beat Mugabe in the parallel presidential election in results published after five weeks, which, however showed the former trade union leader had not garnered enough votes to win outright.

Mugabe won the run-off vote after Tsvangirai quit the race, citing a campaign of violence by the military and militia linked to ZANU-PF.

Regional leaders, who pushed Mugabe and Tsvangirai into a unity government two years ago, are fretting on the prospect of Zimbabwe going back to elections without a new constitution, electoral reforms and a cessation of political violence.

Government officials who attended the meeting in Livingstone, Zambia said the troika leaders believed that the next presidential and parliamentary elections were not possible this year.

“What was not captured by the communiqué is that President Rupiah Banda (of Zambia) told Mugabe and Tsvangirai that ‘the region is not convinced that the building blocks to a free and fair election in Zimbabwe have been established and so we do not see elections possible this side of the calendar year’,” an official who attended the summit told ZimOnline.

As part of the roadmap, regional leaders want an end to army deployments in the countryside, guarantees on freedom of assembly by political parties, establishment of election dispute resolution mechanisms, a new voters’ roll, end to political violence and for security forces to act impartially.

Mugabe has defended political violence, even saying it is a culture associated with African elections but analysts argue that Zimbabwe was unique in that the violence is sponsored by state agents against unarmed citizens.

South Africa, which is the facilitator in the Zimbabwe crisis and has fended Western criticism against the octogenarian leader, is increasingly frustrated by Mugabe’s refusal to fully implement terms of a 2008 power-sharing pact and analysts fear a road-map without benchmarks would be abused in the same way by ZANU-PF.

“I believe at this hour the MDC itself is alive to the need to ensure that any road-map is well signposted and has clear timelines and checks to make sure that it is adhered to in letter and spirit. I am sure they have learnt from the apparent weaknesses in the GPA,” John Makumbe, a senior political science lecturer at the University of Zimbabwe said.

In his drive to force Mugabe to fulfill all the terms of the global political agreement and adhere to conditions of the election road-map, South African President Jacob Zuma will have to rally other regional leaders to take tougher action against the ageing leader.

Mugabe has ruled Zimbabwe since independence from Britain in 1980 and his critics say the 87-year-old leader who is in the twilight of his political career plans to die in office.

Political temperatures are rising in Zimbabwe with ZANU-PF and the police accusing the MDC of perpetrating violence and then crying victim, a charge denied by Tsvangirai, who says pro-Mugabe securocrats have hijacked the unity government.

Diplomatic sources say South Africa is concerned about the role of security forces who have taken sides with Mugabe in Zimbabwe’s political disputes, which Africa’s biggest economy sees as complicating any transfer of power outside ZANU-PF.

IDASA said South Africa should step up the monitoring of Zimbabwe’s political environment and even suggested Pretoria could assign a special envoy in Harare to deal with problems in the resource rich but troubled southern African country.

“The implementation of the road map must be considered a pre-condition to any future election. Furthermore, the road map should have teeth,” IDASA said.

“The deployment of retired generals to various provinces under ZANU-PF’s electoral strategy along with continued rhetoric encouraging active political ‘participation’ in politics will have long-term implications that could entrench and institutionalise the various security forces in Zimbabwe’s political processes

By Zimonline