HARARE – Zimbabwe faces a fresh political storm should elections be held this year, with President Robert Mugabe likely to use violence to retain power should he lose the vote, the London School of Economics (LSE) has said.

Democratic reforms envisaged under Mugabe and Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai’s power-sharing pact known as the global political agreement (GPA) have not been implemented and the pact remains a work in progress, the LSE said.

Without reforms to ensure free and fair polls as well as a smooth transfer of power to the winner, Zimbabwe is likely to end up with another unity government, the LSE said in its latest report on the southern African country titled: "Zimbabwe and Political Transition".

"2011 could be ‘a perfect storm’ …. if an election is held, will it see the removal of ZANU-PF at the ballot box? Yes," the report said.

"Will ZANU-PF cede power? No. As Mnangagwa (Emmerson, Minister of Defence) said, ‘If you don’t vote for us in the next election, we will rule even if you don’t want.’

“The likely outcome is therefore re-booted coalition government,” the report said referring to recent media reports quoting the Defence Minister as saying ZANU PF would not give up power even if it lost elections. Mnangagwa has not disputed the reports.

No date for elections has been set but Mugabe has publicly said they must be held this year, while the rising reports of political violence suggest a vote is imminent either at the end of this year or early next year.

Under the GPA Zimbabwe must first write a new and democratic constitution before holding fresh elections.

A multi-party parliamentary committee leading the writing of the new constitution expects to have a draft charter ready to be taken before Zimbabweans in a referendum by September.

But civil society groups say Zimbabwe should not hold elections this year even after a new constitution has been enacted because the charter and several proposed electoral reforms would need to be given time to take root to ensure the next vote is free and fair.

Zimbabwe’s elections have been characterised by political violence and gross human rights abuses with the last vote in June 2008 ending inconclusively after the military-led a campaign of violence and murder that forced then opposition leader Tsvangirai to withdraw from a second round presidential ballot.

Tsvangirai had been tipped to win the second round election after beating Mugabe in the first round ballot but without the percentage of votes required avoiding the second round run-off poll

The former foes eventually bowed to pressure from southern African leaders to agree to form a government of national unity.

By Staff reporter and agencies